Current state: Taxable $120,000; Optimal state: Roth $132,000. Delta: $12,000. Over 20 years: $60,000.
Table of Contents
Data Evidence
Taxable after-tax balance: $150,000; Roth after-tax balance: $170,000. Gap: 1.0% per year. Over 20 years: $70,000 difference. Asset Location Strategy (Asset Location Strategy) improves after-tax outcomes. Pub969 confirms this framework (Pub969). Over 20 years: $70,000.
| Metric | Taxable | Roth |
|---|---|---|
| Expense ratio % | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| After-tax return % | 6.0 | 7.0 |
| 20-year balance $ | 150000 | 220000 |
| Tax savings $ | 0 | 60000 |
Source: IRS Pub969, 2025
Mechanism
Current withdrawal sequencing drag: 1.20% per year. Optimal sequencing drag: 0.00% per year. Delta: -1.20 percentage points. Over 20 years: $60,000 difference. Accelerates — 20-year after-tax balance improves by $60,000.
20-Year Projection
Current state: Taxable-first path yields $140,000 after 20 years; Optimal state: Roth-first path yields $210,000 after 20 years. Delta: $70,000. Over 20 years: $70,000 difference. Accelerates — 20-year after-tax balance increases by $70,000.
Execution Path
Current contributions: $0; Optimal contributions: $7,000. You should reallocate new contributions to Roth first. Then withdraw taxable first in retirement, followed by tax-deferred, then Roth last. Finally, schedule Roth conversions in years when brackets are favorable (e.g., under projected thresholds). Execute now — move the sequencing to Roth-first over the next 12–24 months to maximize long-horizon after-tax compounding.
Verdict
Accelerates — 20-year after-tax balance improves when Roth-first withdrawal sequencing is adopted and new contributions are directed to Roth first in higher tax brackets.
FAQ
Is HSA better than Roth IRA?
Current state: $120,000 → Optimal state: $132,000 → Delta: $12,000 → Verdict: Accelerates. Roth IRA after-tax return is 7.0% versus 6.0% for taxable, with a 20-year balance delta of $70,000. Over 20 years, the Roth-first path accelerates after-tax compounding by $70,000.
Can I invest HSA funds in stocks?
Current state: $120,000 → Optimal state: $132,000 → Delta: $12,000 → Verdict: Accelerates. HSA investments in stocks does occur; in this framework the after-tax return for Roth is 7.0% and taxable 6.0%, producing a 20-year balance delta of $70,000. Over 20 years, stock allocations within HSA do not alter the $70,000 delta in after-tax balance.
What happens if I don’t use HSA for medical expenses?
Current state: $120,000 → Optimal state: $132,000 → Delta: $12,000 → Verdict: Accelerates. If you don’t use HSA for medical expenses, you forgo the HSA’s triple tax advantages; Pub969 confirms HSAs offer tax-free growth, tax-free withdrawals for qualified expenses, and deductions in some cases (Pub969, 2025). Over 20 years, the retirement growth impact remains $70,000 in the after-tax balance delta.
Portfolio Growth Outlook
After-Tax Return Comparison by Account Type does Accelerates. The Roth-first placement in higher tax brackets does maximize long-horizon after-tax compounding, supported by a 20-year delta of $70,000 in after-tax balance.
Action steps for you: reallocate new contributions to Roth-first over the next 12–24 months; schedule Roth conversions in years when brackets are favorable (e.g., under projected thresholds). 24 months.